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Maine DOER: https://www.maine.gov/energy/heating-fuel-prices

Maine uses more heating oil per capita than any other state, which means every global distillate shock impacts Mainers more than most other states. The chart, above, captures three major spikes and some smaller swings.

The Spring 2022 peak is the first one. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine hit a distillate market that was already short on refining capacity after pandemic-era closures took a bunch of capacity offline. EIA’s read at the time was that U.S. distillate inventories were low because of reduced global refining capacity since 2020, elevated early-2022 demand, and the trade disruptions triggered by the invasion. Maine’s all-time record was $5.92 per gallon in May 2022.

Fall 2022 was a separate problem mostly related to poor management. Residential heating oil hit $5.90 per gallon on November 7, 2022, due to tight inventories, low imports, and limited production capacity. Northeast distillate fuel inventories were at 15.2 million barrels as of November 11, which was 44% below the same week the prior year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also pointed to reduced refinery production in Europe following labor strikes, stacked on top of the seasonal ramp in distillate demand. The subsequent drop came from crude falling, a warmer-than-normal winter, and distillate inventories growing in ways the market hadn’t expected.

March 2026 was the needless Iran war. The statewide average jumped from $3.82 on February 23 to $4.97 on March 16 – a $1.15 move in three weeks. Maine’s Department of Energy Resources (DOER) noted the following week that it was the highest price since November 2022. The April and May pullback lines up with market maniuplated ceasefire expectations; futures dropped in early April as traders gambled on the whims of a senile POTUS with tentative hopes for a Middle East ceasefire against a tighter domestic supply outlook.

The right edge of the chart is the beginning of a story yet to be told. The statewide average hit $5.77 per gallon on September 14, up 74% year-over-year. Analysts attribute the run to crude climbing from around $77 a barrel to more than $100 tied to Iran and Strait of Hormuz (and Bab el-Mandeb) concerns. Distillate fuel oil stocks are also at their lowest level for this time of year since EIA started keeping records, which should make folks (at best) nervous (see The Depletion Ledger to understand why).

You may notice that propane barely moves during any of these episodes. This is expected, as propane follows natural gas liquids and U.S. production, not crude and distillate, so it’s at least partially insulated from these particular shocks. The kerosene-over-heating-oil spread also widens sharply during every spike, going from roughly $0.60 in calm periods to $1.30 or more at the peaks (which is a real hit if you’re running kerosene).