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(This article was first published on <strong><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RstatsMikeJackTzen/~3/Zbz2WFykYlc/"> rstats – MikeJackTzen</a></strong>, and kindly contributed to <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.r-bloggers.com/">R-bloggers)</a> </div>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thanks to <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/LukeBornn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">@LukeBornn</a> &amp; Tim Swartz, I had the opportunity to present the <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkesHand?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">#HawkesHand</a><img alt="🔥" src="https://i0.wp.com/s0.wp.com/wp-content/mu-plugins/wpcom-smileys/twemoji/2/72x72/1f525.png?w=456&ssl=1" class="wp-smiley" data-recalc-dims="1"><img alt="🏀" src="https://i1.wp.com/s0.wp.com/wp-content/mu-plugins/wpcom-smileys/twemoji/2/72x72/1f3c0.png?w=456&ssl=1" class="wp-smiley" data-recalc-dims="1">at <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CASSIS18?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">#CASSIS18</a> . I learned a lot, had a hell of a time &amp; met some great people <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RuffRuff?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">#RuffRuff</a> . My Hawkes Hand slides can be viewed here <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/RVkyoNc2IY" target="_blank">https://t.co/RVkyoNc2IY</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/hPfBcpDhcv" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/hPfBcpDhcv</a></p>
<p>— MikeJackTzen (@MKJCKTZN) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/MKJCKTZN/status/1027251390303748096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">August 8, 2018</a></p>
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<div>Thanks to <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/lukebornn" target="_blank">Luke Bornn</a> &amp; Tim Swartz, I had the opportunity to present the Hawkes Hand at <a rel="nofollow" href="http://cascadiasports.com/" target="_blank">CASSIS18</a> . I learned a lot, had a hell of a time &amp; met some great people #RuffRuff . My Hawkes Hand slides are <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ucla.box.com/v/slides-hawkes-hand" target="_blank">here</a> .</div>
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<p><a rel="nofollow" href="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/img_20180808_104337_875.jpg" target="_blank"><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/img_20180808_104337_875.jpg?w=450&amp;h=388&amp;fit=517%2C388" data-orig-size="2048,1536" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/img_20180808_104337_875.jpg?w=450&amp;h=388&amp;fit=517%2C388?w=300" data-attachment-id="950" data-image-meta="{" data-image-description="" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/img_20180808_104337_875.jpg?w=450&h=388&fit=517%2C388" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/img_20180808_104337_875/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/img_20180808_104337_875.jpg?w=450&amp;h=388&amp;fit=517%2C388?w=880" alt="" data-image-title="IMG_20180808_104337_875" sizes="(max-width: 517px) 100vw, 517px" data-comments-opened="1" class="wp-image-950" data-recalc-dims="1"></a></p>
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<div>“The Hot Hand is real. If not, why do players even warm up before the game starts?” – Me</div>
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<div>In the 80s, GVT looked at the hot hand through a difference of conditional probabilities that depends on the analyst explicitly conditioning on shooting streak sequences. When the sequence is a string of 3 makes, this is like “NBA Jam,” a video game in the 90s.</div>
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<p><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/capture.png?w=456" data-orig-size="570,469" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/capture.png?w=456?w=300" data-attachment-id="937" data-image-meta="{" data-image-description="" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/capture.png?w=456" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/capture-2/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/capture.png?w=456?w=570" alt="Capture" data-image-title="Capture" sizes="(max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px" data-comments-opened="1" class="wp-image-937" data-recalc-dims="1"></p>
<div>Are there alternative ways to frame the hot hand other than conditioning on sequential coin flip orderings (H is a make and T is a miss)? If you observed a <strong>HHH </strong>sequence you might naturally say that the player was hot. But what if I told you that the made shots were evenly spread across 48 minutes. If the player only attempted and made all 3 shots at the cumulative minute marks of 11:30, 23:30, and 35:30, would you still say that the player was hot in the 4th quarter? Alternatively, even if you observed a miss in the sequence <strong>HHT</strong> within a short time frame (3 minutes), this could very well provide information towards a player heating up. Temporal information is important when contextualizing shooting streaks of makes or misses, information <strong>NOT</strong> used by the GVT approach.</div>
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<div>A professional NBA player is expected to have world-class ability in judging their own latent psycho-bio-mechancial state, then acting upon it. Seeing a player attempt many shots in a short cluster of time would suggest that the player is in a self-excited shooting state, perhaps self-confident in his shot making ability. Instead of the GVT approach, we use a Hawkes model, a way to model temporal clustering in point processes. Specifically, we use the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences model.</div>
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<div>ETAS is a special case of the Hawkes model, where the ETAS model allows earthquakes of different magnitudes to have different contributions to productivity. A large magnitude earthquake might generate more aftershocks as opposed to an earthquake with a smaller magnitude. In the Hawkes Hand context, we let the ‘local field goal percentage’ be the ‘magnitude’ of a made shot. A made shot with a higher localized field goal percentage may generate more aftershock-makes than a made shot that had a lower field goal percentage.</div>
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<div>Our ETAS approach gives us 2 dimensions of hotness (hawkesness):</div>
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<div>1. The productivity parameter in the ETAS model summarizes the average number of aftershock-makes generated by a parent make.</div>
<div>2. The logistic regression parameter links the historical intensity of makes to the local field goal percentage (using a geometric random variable to preserve information about the misses between two makes).</div>
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<div>For those reading at home, try to match the 3 games of varying hotness to:</div>
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<p><strong>Shuffle {Klay Thompson, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant}</strong></p>
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<p><a rel="nofollow" href="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game3/" target="_blank"><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game31.png" data-orig-size="1920,1080" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game31.png?w=300" data-attachment-id="934" data-image-meta="{" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game31.png?w=150&h=84&fit=150%2C84&resize=150%2C84" data-image-description="" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game3/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game31.png?w=880" alt="" data-image-title="game3" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" width="150" data-comments-opened="1" data-recalc-dims="1" height="84"></a><br>
<a rel="nofollow" href="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game2/" target="_blank"><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game21.png" data-orig-size="1920,1080" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game21.png?w=300" data-attachment-id="935" data-image-meta="{" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game21.png?w=150&h=84&fit=150%2C84&resize=150%2C84" data-image-description="" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game2/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game21.png?w=880" alt="" data-image-title="game2" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" width="150" data-comments-opened="1" data-recalc-dims="1" height="84"></a><br>
<a rel="nofollow" href="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game1/" target="_blank"><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game11.png" data-orig-size="1920,1080" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game11.png?w=300" data-attachment-id="936" data-image-meta="{" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game11.png?w=150&h=84&fit=150%2C84&resize=150%2C84" data-image-description="" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/game1/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/game11.png?w=880" alt="" data-image-title="game1" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" width="150" data-comments-opened="1" data-recalc-dims="1" height="84"></a></p>
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<div>Further, these 2 dimensions of hawkesness suggest that there are a handful of games in the 2005-2006 season where Kobe was hotter than he was for his 81 point game on January 22, 2006 (in red below).</div>
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<div><a rel="nofollow" href="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/scatter_hawkes.png" target="_blank"><img data-orig-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/scatter_hawkes.png" data-orig-size="1920,1080" data-medium-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/scatter_hawkes.png?w=300" data-attachment-id="933" data-image-meta="{" data-image-description="" src="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/scatter_hawkes.png?w=450&h=301&fit=535%2C301" data-permalink="https://mikejacktzen.wordpress.com/portfolio/the-hawkes-hand/scatter_hawkes/" data-large-file="https://mikejacktzen.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/scatter_hawkes.png?w=450&amp;h=301&amp;fit=535%2C301" alt="scatter_hawkes" data-image-title="scatter_hawkes" sizes="(max-width: 535px) 100vw, 535px" data-comments-opened="1" class="wp-image-933" data-recalc-dims="1"></a></div>
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<div>If you were an NBA player, how would you react if the league office got rid of pre-game warmups?</div>
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<div>PS, we had another presentation at <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CASSIS18?src=hash" target="_blank">#CASSIS18</a> where Aaron talked about relational networks in basketball. Find out more about CoordiNet and Dr. Aaron at <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.aaronjdanielson.com/" target="_blank">https://www.aaronjdanielson.com/</a></div>
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<div>PPS, we used <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/rstats?src=hash" target="_blank">#rstats</a> for all of our analysis and graphics. From the presentations to the posters, many of the presenters used R. Talking with analytics staff (from the NBA, MLB, and the NFL) a lot of them use R in their internal systems.</div>
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